據美國鉆井網站2023年2月10日報道，根據挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的研究和分析，全球化石燃料二氧化碳排放量的拐點即將到來，化石燃料二氧化碳排放量將在2025年前達到峰值。

根據目前全球已宣布的政策、項目、行業趨勢和預期的技術進步，到2025年前，全球化石燃料的二氧化碳年排放總量將達到大約390億噸，然后由于各行業清理碳足跡，全球化石燃料的二氧化碳排放總量將穩步下降。

在地緣政治緊張局勢背景下，各國爭相獲得可靠、負擔得起的發電燃料，導致化石燃料的二氧化碳排放總量在2022年創下歷史新高。因此，許多國家轉而使用碳密集型燃料作為能源安全危機的短期解決方案，重新啟用被封存的燃煤發電廠，并優先考慮天然氣而不是更清潔的替代能源。盡管這些燃料在未來幾十年里仍將在全球經濟中發揮作用，但更廣泛的推動更清潔未來的努力并沒有放緩的跡象。

作為未來的一個跡象，來自電力和熱力產生的直接二氧化碳排放——全球發電廠化石燃料燃燒產生的二氧化碳——將在今年達到峰值。在未來幾年走向高潮之前，最初的下降將是最小的，這將成為到2025年前所有部門二氧化碳排放總量下降的重要因素。

Rystad清潔技術研究負責人阿特姆·阿布拉莫夫說：“在未來兩年內達到化石燃料二氧化碳排放峰值是一項杰出的全球成就，考慮到當前供應鏈的障礙和對能源安全的高度關注，這一成就尤為突出。如果該行業能夠保持這一勢頭，全球氣候變暖低于2攝氏度的目標是可以實現的。”

去年，全球化石燃料二氧化碳年排放總量達到了歷史最高水平，約為383億噸，這讓人驚訝，并質疑世界是否有能力實現將氣候變暖限制在1.5至2攝氏度之間的雄心勃勃的氣候目標。然而，Rystad的綜合排放模型指出了一個迫在眉睫的年度排放拐點。數據顯示，2025年將達到390億噸的峰值，但如果短期宏觀經濟前景加速能源轉型，這一時間線最早可能提前到2024年。

電力和供暖推動全球減排

去年是實現全球氣候目標具有挑戰性的一年。一方面，新增的公用事業規模的太陽能和風能發電能力達到了創紀錄的水平——全球大約300吉瓦——從而引發了可再生發電的大幅增長，這一趨勢今年可能會再次增加。

然而，由于低碳供應鏈的中斷和通脹壓力，這些新增裝機容量低于預期。此外，地緣政治沖突從根本上擾亂了能源流動，導致天然氣普遍短缺，特別是在歐洲，促進了煤炭發電使用量的增加。因此，電力和熱力部門的直接化石燃料二氧化碳年排放總量達到了大約144億噸的歷史新高。

去年，全球工業化石燃料二氧化碳年排放總量持平于99.5億噸左右。

全球交通運輸部門的化石燃料二氧化碳年排放總量增加了2億噸，在2022年達到78億噸，低于疫情前82億噸的峰值，原因是疫情影響和電動汽車加速普導致航空業持續疲軟。電動汽車的普及程度正接近抵消全球現役汽車數量年度增長所需的水平。

盡管有這些挫折，電力和熱力部門預計將從本十年中期開始推動即將到來的化石燃料二氧化碳排放量下降。到2023年，可再生能源發電能力的增加預計將超過電力需求的增長。從2025年起，每年新增的可再生能源發電量將開始對化石燃料總產量產生重大影響。

這一趨勢還將伴隨著煤制氣的連續不斷轉換。交通運輸和工業部門化石燃料二氧化碳排放量將在本十年晚些時候達到峰值，但預計也將在21世紀20年代下半葉加入脫碳趨勢。與此同時，第一代大規模商業碳捕獲計劃也將開始發揮不可忽視的作用，最初由歐洲和北美的項目推動。

歐洲、美國等減排取得進步，而印度排放量卻在增加

不同地區的脫碳情況各不相同，預計未來幾年化石燃料二氧化碳排放的主要貢獻者將發揮不同的作用。例如，到2030年前，歐洲、美國化石燃料二氧化碳排放量將分別減少24%、18%。歐洲和美國正走在結構性脫碳經濟的道路上，從2025年起，它們將傾向于新實施的清潔技術和低碳政策。

另一方面，由于經濟增長和人口增長，印度預計將繼續擴大化石燃料二氧化碳排放的勢頭。我們預計印度的化石燃料二氧化碳排放量將在2022年至2030年期間增加36%，在2025年超過歐洲，在21世紀30年代初超過美國。我們預計，由于非煤炭發電加快步伐以滿足國內不斷增長的電力需求，印度的化石燃料二氧化碳排放量的增長將在本世紀30年代放緩。

在其他地方，到2030年前，工業部門化石燃料二氧化碳排放量預計將增加大約20%。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

Fossil Fuel Emissions To Peak Within Two Years

The inflection point for fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is nigh, with emissions on track to peak by 2025, according to Rystad Energy research and analysis.

On the current global pathway of announced policies, projects, industry trends and expected technological advancements, global CO2 emissions are poised to hit about 39 gigatonnes per year (Gtpa) in 2025 before settling into a steady annual decline as industries clean up their carbon footprint.

Emissions hit a record high in 2022 as countries scrambled to secure reliable, affordable fuel for power generation on the back of  the war. As a result, many turned to more carbon-intensive fuels as a short-term solution to their energy security crises, reviving mothballed coal plants and prioritizing gas over cleaner alternatives. While these fuels will still have a role to play in the global economy for decades to come, the broader push towards a cleaner future is showing no signs of slowing down.

As a sign of things to come, direct CO2 emissions – carbon dioxide originating from fossil fuel combustion at the plants worldwide – from power and heat generation will peak this year. The decline will be minimal initially before gathering momentum in the coming years, becoming a significant factor behind the decrease in total CO2 emissions from all sectors by 2025.

“Peak fossil fuel CO2 emissions within the next two years is an outstanding global achievement, exceptional when considering the current supply chain roadblocks and the high focus on energy security. If the industry can maintain this momentum, global warming of less than 2.0 degrees Celsius is within reach,” said Artem Abramov, head of clean tech research at Rystad Energy.

Fossil CO2 emissions reached an all-time high of about 38.3 Gtpa last year, raising eyebrows and questions about the world’s ability to deliver on ambitious climate goals to limit warming to between 1.5 and 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, Rystad’s comprehensive emissions modeling points to an imminent emissions inflection point. The data shows a peak of 39 Gtpa in 2025, but that timeline could move up to as early as next year if the short-term macroeconomic outlook accelerates the energy transition.

Power and heating driving emissions reductions globally

Last year proved a challenging one for global climate goals. On the one hand, a record amount of new utility-scale solar and wind capacity was added – about 300 GW globally – triggering a sizeable increase in renewable-generated electricity, a trend that is likely to increase again this year.

However, these new installations were weaker than forecast, thanks to low-carbon supply-chain disruptions and inflationary pressure. Moreover, the war fundamentally disrupted energy flows, resulting in widespread natural gas shortages, particularly in Europe, facilitating the increase in coal use for power generation. As a result, direct fossil CO2 emissions from the power and heat sectors hit record highs of around 14.4 Gtpa.

Global industrial emissions last year stayed flat at around 9.95 Gtpa.

Transport emissions increased by 0.2 Gtpa to reach 7.8 Gtpa in 2022 – falling short of pre-Covid peaks of 8.2 Gtpa due to the continued weakness of the aviation sector, triggered by the pandemic and accelerating penetration of electric vehicles. EV adoption is approaching the levels needed to offset the annual global growth of the size of the active car fleet.

Despite these setbacks, the power and heating sector is expected to drive the upcoming fossil CO2 decline from mid-decade onwards. In 2023, the addition of renewable generation capacity is projected to outstrip the uptick in electricity demand. From 2025, annual renewable generation additions will start materially affecting total fossil fuel output.

This trend will also accompany continuous coal-to-gas switching. Transportation and industrial emissions will peak later this decade but are also expected to join the decarbonization trend in the second half of the 2020s. At the same time, the first generation of large-scale commercial carbon capture initiatives will also start playing non-negligible roles, driven initially by projects in Europe and North America.

Europe, the US, etc. made progress, India’s emissions grow

The decarbonization picture differs across regions, and key contributors of emissions are expected to play diverging roles in the coming years. For instance, Europe, the US, are on track to reduce fossil CO2 emissions by 24%, 18%, , respectively, by 2030. Europe and the US are on a path to structurally decarbonize their economies, leaning into newly implemented clean technology and low carbon policies from 2025 onwards.

At the other end of the spectrum, India is expected to continue its momentum of expanding CO2 emissions as its economy expands and the population grows. We expect Indian CO2 emissions to increase by 36% between 2022 and 2030, surpassing Europe in 2025 and the US in the early 2030s. We anticipate growing emissions to slow in the 2030s as non-coal power generation steps up to meet incremental electricity demand growth.

Elsewhere, industrial emissions are expected to increase by about 20% by 2030.