我國碳排放強度雖然不斷下降，但市場機制在這一過程中所起作用較為有限，未來可能不利于我國應對碳邊境稅。歐盟碳邊境證價格將由專門的CBAM管理機構決定，這一價格以歐盟碳市場配額拍賣價格為參考，因此將與歐盟碳市場碳價較為接近。2021年8月歐盟碳市場成交均價約57歐元/噸，且隨著歐盟碳市場第四階段更嚴格的總量控制與配額分配措施落實，很可能將在未來進一步增長（數據來源：ICE交易所）。2021年8月我國全國碳市場成交均價約47元/噸，遠低于歐盟碳市場，且僅覆蓋火電行業，即使歐盟允許以國內碳價抵扣碳邊境證價格，也無法有效緩解受影響企業面臨的壓力（數據來源：上海環境能源交易所）。通過行政管控、新能源補貼和標準設置等其他手段即使可以實現與碳定價機制實際效果類似的減排，由于很難折算至碳價，也可能無法得到歐盟的豁免，將使談判進程復雜化。建議我國穩步推進全國碳市場建設，探索納入有償分配與配額總量控制等制度，逐步納入鋼鐵與鋁等更多碳排放較密集的行業，同時探索以碳稅或類似機制作為補充，促進形成合理碳價，更多依靠市場機制實現減排，并爭取掌握全球碳定價權。

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作者：

周杰俁  中央財經大學綠色金融國際研究院研究員

崔   瑩 中央財經大學綠色金融國際研究院助理院長、氣候金融研究中心主任