原文信息：CO2 emission patterns in shrinking andgrowing cities: A case study of Northeast China and the Yangtze River Delta原文鏈接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191931058X

01HighlightsCO2 emission inventories of shrinking and growing cities are compiled.Emission patterns of various shrinking and growing cities are investigated.CO2 emission mitigation of shrinking cities occurred with the decline of secondary industry.Growing cities can achieve emissions mitigation with economic growth.Results are helpful for shrinking and growing cities’ sustainable development.

02摘要
在城市實施二氧化碳減排政策是中國實現(xiàn)國家減排目標的關(guān)鍵。中國正經(jīng)歷著快速的城市化進程，面臨著巨大的區(qū)域發(fā)展不平等，萎縮型城市開始產(chǎn)生。本研究首次通過與成長型城市的比較，探討萎縮型城市的長期二氧化碳排放模式。通過選取東北、長三角地區(qū)55個城市為例，本研究首先用人口指數(shù)將這些城市分為三組萎縮型城市和三組成長型城市。然后研究每組城市在能源、就業(yè)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)方面的排放模式。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在快速萎縮型小組的二氧化碳排放呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)增長的趨勢，而其他5組在2011-2013年達到了排放峰值。對于輕度和中度萎縮型城市來說，二氧化碳減排隨著第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的衰退出現(xiàn)，特別是對于資源型或重型制造業(yè)城市，如中國東北的大慶和鞍山。在增長型城市中，城市均有能力減少二氧化碳排放并維持經(jīng)濟增長。輕度增長型組是這其中的最佳類型，它的碳排放量在下降，在2013-2015年經(jīng)歷著年增長率為?1.47%，而經(jīng)濟仍在高速增長（每年增長7.27%）。本研究所提供的城市分類規(guī)則、研究思路及研究成果，可為其他處于類似工業(yè)化或城市化階段的城市或發(fā)展中國家縮短通往低碳經(jīng)濟之路提供參考。

03AbstractThe implementation of CO2 emission mitigation policies in cities is the key to China achieving its national emission mitigation targets. China is experiencing rapid urbanization and facing huge inequality in regional development and then shrinking cities generate. This study, for the first time, discusses long-term CO2 emission patterns of shrinking cities with comparisons of growing cities. 55 cities in Northeast China and the Yangtze River Delta are selected as cases. We first categorize these cities into three groups of shrinking cities and three groups of growing cities with a population index. Each group’s emission patterns in terms ofenergy, employment and industry structures are then examined. We find that CO2 emissions in the rapidly shrinking group presented a continuously increasing trend, while the other five groups reached their emission peaks in 2011–2013. For slightly and moderately shrinking groups, CO2 emission mitigation was a positive sign but occurred with the decline of secondary industry, especially for resource-based or heavy manufacturing cities, such as Daqing and Anshan in Northeast China. In the case of three types of growing cities, cities were capable of mitigating CO2 emissions and maintaining economic growth. The slightly growing group was the optimal type among these six groups. Its CO2 emissions experienced a decline with an annual rate of ?1.47% during 2013–2015, while the economy still soared (increased by 7.27% annually). New economic growth points should be fostered to mitigate further shrinkage and achieve sustainable development for shrinking cities. The cities’ categorization rules, research thinking, andresults offered in this study could provide a reference for other cities or developing countries at similar industrialization/urbanization phases to abbreviate their path towards a low-carbon economy.
Keywords：CO2 emissions
Shrinking cityGrowing cityPopulationUrbanizationChina



Fig. 1. Spatial distribution and population index of cities in Northeast China and the Yangtze River Delta for 2003–2009 (A) and 2009–2015 (B).


Fig. 2. Mean CO2 emissions and carbon intensity of each city group.

Fig. 3. Employment and industry structure of each city group.